FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Results of recent surveys by the University of Arkansas Survey Research Center reveal that Arkansans are significantly more optimistic about the state’s economy than they are about the national economy. Also, more than half of all Northwest Arkansas residents think the state economy will experience “good times” during the next year, while almost four out of every 10 Arkansans statewide think the same.

However, Northwest Arkansans and Arkansans as a whole, like most Americans, are not optimistic about the national economy. The surveys demonstrated that slightly more than one-fourth of Northwest Arkansans thought that the U.S. economy would experience good times over the next year, and only 23.4 percent of Arkansans statewide predicted the same. These and other results from the Spring 2006 Arkansas Omnibus Survey and Northwest Arkansas Omnibus Survey were released Thursday, July 13.

“There are several economic factors that may explain why people feel less than optimistic about the national economy,” said Molly Longstreth, director of the research center. “The Federal Reserve is slowly raising interest rates to keep inflation in check, energy prices remain higher than they have been historically and home sales have dropped nationally. Although all three of these indicators affect Arkansas, the survey results show that Arkansans think the state economy is relatively immune to national problems.”

The omnibus surveys are service-oriented polls designed to measure Arkansans’ perceptions about a variety of topics. Each survey contains basic questions from the Index of Consumer Sentiment, a national poll that measures consumers’ attitudes about current and future economic conditions. Started more than 50 years ago at the University of Michigan, it is a standard by which economists, investors and policymakers predict future economic conditions, because they know consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Respondents’ answers to several questions -- including opinions on whether they are better or worse off financially than last year and whether now is a good or bad time to purchase large household items, such as furniture, appliances and televisions -- determine an index score, which was 81.7 for Arkansas in April and 83.2 in Northwest Arkansas in June. Spring 2006 scores were down compared to July 2005 -- 86.6 for Arkansas as a whole and 92.7 for Northwest Arkansas -- but up from Northwest Arkansas’ September 2005 score of only 77.2, which may have reflected consumers’ concerns about the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the national and local economy.

Longstreth said the index is usually stable from month to month. Monthly increases or decreases of more than six points are rare, and dramatic changes usually occur over a period of several months.

Specific results from the spring 2006 omnibus surveys revealed that:

• as mentioned above, 54.2 percent of Northwest Arkansans thought the state’s economy would experience good times during the next 12 months, and fewer than two out every 10 Northwest Arkansans thought the state’s economy will experience bad times over the next year.
• as mentioned above, 39.2 percent of Arkansas residents thought the state’s economy would experience good times over the next year, and 22.7 percent thought the state’s economy will experience bad times over the next year.
• 26.7 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 23.4 percent of Arkansans as a whole think the U.S. economy will experience good times over the next year.
• 36.5 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 37.2 percent of Arkansans as a whole think the national will experience bad times during the next 12 months.
• 36.8 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 39 percent of Arkansans as a whole are uncertain or think the U.S. economy will experience good and bad times during the next 12 months.
• 39.7 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 34.7 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families are better off financially than they were a year ago.
• 35.5 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 42.3 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families are the same financially than they were a year ago.
• 24.8 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 23 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families are worse off financially than they were a year ago.
• 37.8 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 31.4 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families will be better off financially in the spring of 2007.
• 49.1 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 53.3 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families will be the same financially in the spring of 2007.
• 13.1 percent of Northwest Arkansans and 15.3 percent of Arkansans as a whole think they and their families will be worse off financially in the spring of 2007.

Conducted in both English and Spanish, omnibus surveys use random-digit dialing to contact a wide sample of residents from nearly every county in Arkansas. Data are collected via a sophisticated, state-of-the-art, computer-assisted telephone interviewing system. Interviewers are highly trained, and information received during the process remains confidential. Longstreth said the center’s findings are accurate within a range of 4 percentage points.

Established in 1998, the UA Survey Research Center conducts surveys and evaluations for a variety of organizations and is dedicated to providing high-quality, nonbiased information. For more information on the center and its research, go to http://survey.uark.edu/ .