FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - Results from the fifth annual Arkansas Poll show that the vast majority of Arkansans continue to support efforts to reform the public education system and that they consider this issue the state’s top concern. But when it comes to finding money to fund the necessary improvements, people across the state remain baffled and begrudging.

Results from the 2003 poll also reveal that Arkansans hold significant misperceptions about late-life issues and the policies and services available to support older adults across the state. The data indicate that a majority of respondents may be overestimating their long-term care needs and expecting to rely on a Medicare system that isn’t designed to support them.

Conducted Oct. 5-13 by the University of Arkansas Survey Research Center, the 2003 Arkansas Poll canvassed 762 Arkansans, gathering information on policy issues as well as quality of life ratings and approval ratings for public officials. Key issues in this year’s poll included education finance and reform, living alternatives for older adults and use of online government services

Education Reform

"This year, education reform beat out all other issues to rank as the top concern facing Arkansas. Even unemployment and the economy, which ranked highest in 2001 and 2002, came in second to concerns about the education system," said Janine Parry, director of the poll. "With all the publicity generated by the Lake View decision and its various, proposed solutions, we expected to see that sort of heightened awareness. What we didn’t expect was the continued uncertainty about how to finance reform efforts."

Indeed, 2003 poll results nearly mirror those of 2002 in regards to educational funding. With the state of Arkansas facing the prospect of pumping an additional $800 million into its education budget annually, such public indecision could lead to a political impasse, Parry warned.

Results from the poll indicate that the vast majority of Arkansans favor raising teacher salaries, increasing access to state-funded pre-schools and improving school facilities. Approval ratings matched or exceeded 79 percent for each proposal. In addition, 91 percent of respondents supported a requirement that every high school offer all core courses each year, and 88 percent approved of expanding the number of courses offered in high schools overall, especially classes aimed at college preparation.

When presented with proposals on how to pay for such reforms, however, 41 percent of Arkansans approved of raising sales taxes, and only 35 percent approved of raising income taxes. A mere 26 percent favored increased property taxes. Consolidating small school districts into larger ones - a hotly-contested proposal - received support from 41 percent of Arkansans, down from 49 percent last year.

With 62 percent approval, the most popular revenue solution - adopting a state lottery - was the only proposal to gain majority support. Unfortunately, it’s also the solution estimated to raise the least money, Parry said. Analysts project it would raise only $50 million, or one-sixteenth of the projected funding needed. Further, the second-most popular solution - cutting other government services - would require that the state’s non-educational expenditures, including roads, Medicaid and higher education, would have to be cut by more than 25 percent to come at all close to meeting the court’s mandate in the Lake View case.

"Clearly, Arkansans are still far from unified in how we’d like to pay for education reforms. Only one in four support a property tax increase. And though support for raising income and sales taxes rose slightly between 2002 and 2003, it still falls short of the majority," Parry said. "The good news for policymakers convinced that new revenue sources are inevitable, however, is the fact that 61 percent of respondents - up slightly from 58 percent last year - agree to an increase in at least one of these taxes."

Living Arrangements for Older Arkansans

While Arkansans wrestle with providing an adequate start to life through education, their own education about late-life issues may be inadequate. So say researchers in the School of Human Environmental Sciences, who contributed a battery of questions about older adults’ living options on this year’s poll.

Researchers Jean Turner, Jennifer Webb and Nann Miller found that people across the state hold misperceptions about the services they will need as they age and the support that will be provided. For example, 68 percent of respondents indicate they expect to depend on Medicare to finance long-term care once they are no longer able to live independently.

"That’s a big red flag. Medicare is not available for long-term care and only covers rehabilitation costs for a duration of 90 days," Turner said. "With all the media coverage about Medicare lately, people have made the assumption that it’s a part of Social Security and will provide care for the rest of their lives. That’s not the case, and it’s an education issue that needs to be addressed at the state and federal levels."

In addition, 53 percent of those polled said they expect to relocate to a retirement facility or community if they can no longer live on their own. And 65 percent reported that they would likely move to a facility that provided medical care. Such expectations do not reflect the reality of growing older, Turner said. In fact, less than 5 percent of people over the age of 65 are in a nursing home at any one time.

What the researchers found even more interesting was the divided demographics of those who envisioned themselves in medical facilities. Respondents in the lowest and the highest income brackets were most likely to foresee moving to a facility with nursing care. The middle-income respondents seemed to have no such expectation.

"It may be that people in the middle income range are the only ones thinking pragmatically about the cost of such care. Placing a spouse in a nursing home often means the other partner lives the rest of his or her life in poverty," Turner said. "Higher income people may not have to be as concerned about the cost, and lower income respondents may realistically hope the state will provide support for their nursing home care."

Electronic Government

Another portion of the Arkansas Poll also examines the future of Arkansans - but this time in the way they conduct state business. A recent report from the Taubman Center for Public Policy at Brown University claimed that the Arkansas government Web site offers more opportunity to conduct online business than that of any other state. In response, accounting researchers Deborah Thomas, Christina Ritsema and Tracy Manly designed a series of questions to assess whether Arkansans are taking advantage of these opportunities.

Public use of online government services is an issue of growing significance both statewide and nationally, according to Thomas. In 1998, Congress passed an act that mandated the IRS to collect 80 percent of the nation’s tax returns through electronic filing by 2007. Currently, only about 40 percent of U.S. taxpayers file their returns online. The move toward more Internet services is mainly a cost-saving measure, Thomas said. Processing services electronically cuts some of the expenses associated with paperwork.

Despite the numerous services available on Arkansas’ state Web site, however, the poll researchers found relatively few Arkansans logging on to use them. Only 35 percent of respondents had ever visited the state site, and of those, 67 percent reported that they had never used the site to conduct business.

The researchers speculate that one obstacle to e-government use may be the fact that 33 percent of Arkansans say they have no access to a computer in their homes or at work. But with more and more public facilities offering online access - from public libraries to Internet cafes - Thomas suspects that the real obstacle is force of habit.

Poll results indicate this may be true. On the issue of electronic tax filing, 51 percent of Arkansans reported that they did not use the Internet to file their returns last year, and one of the main reasons they cited for filing by mail was habit.

"If you look at the results, you see that 37 percent say they always mail their returns by habit, and 39 percent report that they leave it to a paid preparer to do the filing for them," Thomas said. "Add those two together, and you get 76 percent of taxpayers. What this says to me is that with a little public education and some communication with tax preparers, tax authorities could nearly reach the goal of 80 percent electronic returns."

Public Opinion Ratings

In addition to focusing on key issues each year, the Arkansas Poll collects annual opinion ratings on public officials. One of the striking findings of the 2003 poll, according to Parry, was the fact that Governor Mike Huckabee’s approval ratings dropped for the second consecutive year. Researchers had attributed his 20 percent slip in 2002 to the scrutiny of a skeptical public during an election year. But this year, Huckabee’s rating dropped again from 50 percent approval to 47.

"This was not entirely unexpected and likely reflects back on the education reform issue," Parry said. "The Governor has said several times that he’s willing to fall on his own sword to improve education in Arkansas, and these numbers would seem to bear him out. He may well end up sacrificing his political career on this issue."

But there may be another explanation as well, and evidence for it comes from a corresponding slump in President Bush’s Arkansas approval ratings. Having dropped from 87 percent approval in 2001 to 61 percent in 2002, this year, Bush’s numbers dropped even further, showing less than 50 percent approval among Arkansans for the first time in his presidency.

"Given the sustained downtown of our economy and our general global uncertainty, incumbents seem to be taking a serious hit on their approval ratings. It’s a trend that’s been noted nationally, and it’s possible that our own governor may be suffering the backlash from this slump," Parry said.

Politicians aren’t the only ones suffering, according to the poll. When asked to compare their current financial status to that of a year ago, only 27 percent of Arkansans said they were better off, down from 33 percent in 2002. Forty-five percent reported they were about the same. Perhaps a more revealing sign of dissatisfaction is the fact that 63 percent of Arkansans feel the state is headed in the right direction - down from 69 percent last year and 78 percent the year before.

Methods and Demographics

To obtain the 762 completed surveys that comprise the 2003 Arkansas Poll, the UA Survey Research Center placed 6,696 calls to randomly selected telephone numbers throughout the state. Once cell phone numbers, disconnected lines, business establishments and the like were taken into consideration, the resulting cooperation rate equaled 33 percent. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

Demographic characteristics for those who answered the survey were fairly consistent with those of the state as a whole, according to data from the 2000 Census. However, respondents to the survey differed in education level and showed a median age about 10 years older than that of the state at large(36 years). Women represented 60 percent of respondents. Such deviations are not unusual in polling projects, Parry said.

The 2003 Arkansas Poll is sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society. Results from the 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 polls can be accessed online at http://plsc.uark.edu/arkpoll/.

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The Arkansas Poll, 2003

Summary Report

Presented by:

The Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society

Dr. Janine A. Parry
Poll Director, Assistant Professor of Political Science

Dr. Will Miller
Director Policy Ph.D. Program, Associate Professor of Political Science

Dr. Bill Schreckhise
Assistant Professor of Political Science

Dr. Todd Shields
Chair and Associate Professor of Political Science
Director, Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas

In collaboration with: Deborah W. Thomas, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, University of Arkansas; Christina M. Ritsema, Assistant Professor, School of Management, Economics and Accounting, Hope College (Holland, MI); Tracy S. Manly, Assistant Professor, School of Accounting, University of Tulsa; and Jennifer Webb, Assistant Professor, Nann Miller, Assistant Professor, and M. Jean Turner, Associate Professor, all with the School of Human Environmental Sciences, University of Arkansas.

Arkansas Poll Website: http://plsc.uark.edu/arkpoll/

*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding

Most Important Problem

What do you think is the most important problem or issue facing people in Arkansas today?	Percent
Education
1999	12
2001	12
2003	24
Unemployment/Lack of Jobs
1999	6
2001	21
2003	20
Health and Medical Insurance
1999	4
2001	4
2003	8
The Economy
1999	7
2001	11
2003	8
Low Wages
1999	6
2001	0
2003	7
Taxes (too much/too high)
1999	5
2001	2
2003	4
Drugs
1999	6
2001	3
2003	3
Roads
1999	2
2001	1
2003	2
Poverty
1999	2
2001	2
2003	2
Morality/Family Breakdown
1999	7
2001	4
2003	1
No Response
1999	26
2001	18
2003	7

Public Figure Approval Ratings

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Huckabee is handling his job as governor?	Approve	Disapprove	DK/ Refused
1999	66%	13%	21%
2000	69%	14%	17%
2001	70%	17%	13%
2002	50%	35%	15%
2003	47%	38%	16%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Blanche Lincoln is handling her job as a U.S. Senator?
1999	46%	17%	37%
2001	51%	13%	36%
2002	50%	16%	35%
2003	55%	10%	35%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Pryor is handling his job as a U.S. Senator?
2003	52%	11%	37%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president?
2001	87%	9%	3%
2002	61%	32%	7%
2003	47%	46%	7%

Public Service Evaluations

Now I'm going to mention some features or services in Arkansas. Please rate each one telling me if you are:	Very Satisfied / Satisfied	Dissatisfied/ Very Dissatis’d	DK/ Refused
The present condition of roads and highways in our state
1999	31%	68%	1%
2003	43%	57%	1%
The quality of parks and recreation facilities in our state
1999	81%	14%	5%
2003	87%	10%	3%
Colleges and universities in our state
1999	84%	7%	10%
2003	79%	11%	10%
The public welfare system in our state
1999	36%	39%	24%
2003	30%	50%	20%
The K through 12th grade public schools in our state
1999	62%	22%	17%
2003	50%	41%	9%
The quality of state and local government services considering the taxes you pay
1999	43%	51%	6%
2003	52%	44%	4%

Public Education Reform

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the following ideas for improving K-12 education in Arkansas.?	Strongly Approve	Approve	Dis-approve	Strongly Dis-approve	DK/ Refused
Increasing teachers’ salaries.
2002	41%	46%	10%	1%	2%
2003	36%	48%	10%	2%	4%
Using merit pay to award bonuses to teachers whose students perform well on state exams
2002	14%	46%	28%	5%	7%
2003	14%	45%	29%	6%	7%
Expanding access to state-funded pre-school education programs
2002	19%	57%	16%	2%	6%
2003	18%	61%	11%	3%	7%
Improving school facilities
2002	34%	55%	8%	0%	2%
2003	31%	58%	6%	1%	4%
Expanding the number of courses offered in high schools, especially college-prep courses
2003 only	32%	56%	8%	0%	4%
Expanding the use of mandatory testing to measure the performance of Arkansas students
2003 only	13%	55%	22%	4%	5%
Requiring that all high schools offer all core courses every year
2003 only	32%	59%	6%	1%	3%
Increasing the number of courses needed for high school graduation
2003 only	10%	40%	37%	3%	10%
Please tell me if you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the following methods of funding reforms in Arkansas schools..
increasing property taxes
2002	2%	26%	50%	21%	2%
2003	2%	24%	50%	22%	2%
increasing sales taxes
2002	3%	35%	48%	12%	2%
2003	4%	37%	42%	15%	2%
increasing income taxes
2002	3%	26%	54%	15%	3%
2003	3%	32%	44%	18%	4%
adopting a state lottery
2002	22%	36%	25%	14%	4%
2003	27%	35%	22%	13%	3%
cutting back in other government services
2003	9%	45%	30%	6%	10%
2003	7%	42%	35%	7%	9%
consolidating small school districts into larger districts
2002	9%	40%	35%	11%	6%
2003	12%	29%	35%	17%	7%

Current Issues

First, in general, would you say you favor stricter gun control, less strict gun control, or should no change be made to existing gun control laws?	Stricter	Less Strict	No Change	DK/ Refused
1999	50%	31%	15%	4%
2000	39%	15%	42%	4%
2001	36%	17%	44%	4%
2002	36%	15%	45%	4%
2003	38%	17%	42%	4%
Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would make it easier to get an abortion or should no change be made to existing abortion laws?	More Difficult	Easier	No Change	DK/ Refused
1999	45%	14%	32%	9%
2000	43%	11%	40%	6%
2001	46%	13%	35%	7%
2002	43%	13%	38%	6%
2003	47%	13%	33%	7%

Political Party and Ideology

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?	Republican	Democrat	Indep’t	Other	DK/ Refused
1999	23%	35%	31%	4%	7%
2000	23%	36%	35%	0%	6%
2001	27%	33%	32%	5%	3%
2002	28%	33%	33%	3%	3%
2003	24%	38%	31%	4%	3%
Independents only: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party?	Closer to Republican	Closer to Democrat	Just Indep’t		DK/ Refused
1999	33%	29%	34%		4%
2000	35%	25%	35%		5%
2001	29%	36%	31%		4%
2002	30%	32%	33%		4%
2003	33%	34%	33%		2%
How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you think of yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?	Liberal	Moderate	Conserv’e		DK/ Refused
1999	14%	38%	38%		10%
2000	16%	36%	39%		9%
2001	17%	39%	38%		6%
2002	15%	39%	41%		5%
2003	17%	36%	39%		7%

Living Environment Alternatives for Older Arkansans

	Strongly Agree	Agree	Disagree	Strongly Disagree	DK / Refused
I'd like you to tell me if you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements about living arrangements for older Arkansans..
If you develop health problems as you grow older, there are adequate support services to enable you to live in your own home as long as possible.	17%	52%	19%	5%	7%
There are affordable choices available to you if you are no longer able to live independently.	9%	46%	27%	8%	11%
You will have to relocate from your community to find appropriate care if you are no longer able to live independently.	4%	35%	43%	13%	5%
You will depend upon Medicare to finance long term care if you are no longer able to live independently.	14%	54%	21%	5%	6%
And, if you are unable to live in your own home later in life, how likely are you to..	Very Likely	Likely	Unlikely	Very Unlikely	DK / Refused
Live with children or other relatives in Arkansas?	15%	28%	31%	24%	3%
Live with children or other relatives out of state?	12%	19%	37%	30%	3%
Relocate to a retirement community or facility?	14%	39%	27%	15%	5%
Relocate to a facility with medical care?	18%	47%	20%	9%	6%

Life in Arkansas

Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?	Right	Wrong		DK/ Refused
1999	73%	15%		12%
2001	78%	14%		8%
2002	69%	22%		9%
2003	63%	26%		11%
On a more individual level, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?	Better	About the Same	Worse	DK/ Refused
1999	37%	47%	16%	1%
2001	41%	39%	19%	1%
2002	33%	39%	27%	1%
2003	27%	45%	28%	1%
And, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you will be better off financially, worse off, or about the same as now?	Better	About the Same	Worse	DK/Refused
1999	43%	46%	6%	1%
2001	41%	39%	19%	1%
2002	40%	45%	10%	5%
2003	35%	49%	12%	5%

E-Government and On-Line Tax Filing

Do you have Internet access in your home, workplace, both, or neither?
Yes, home only	25%
Yes, work only	10%
Yes, both home and work	31%
Neither home nor work	33%
Don’t Know/Refused	0%

Have you ever visited the State of Arkansas website?		(If "yes") Have you ever transacted business, such as renewing car tags . through the State of Arkansas website?
Yes	35%	Yes	33%
No	64%	No	67%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	Don’t Know/Refused	0%

Did you file your federal and/or state tax returns electronically last year?		(If "yes") What motivated you to file electronically? Was it.?
Yes, both federal and state	37%	Convenience	35%
Yes, federal only	3%	Faster refund	26%
Yes, state only	0%	Security	2%
No	51%	A tax return preparer did it for you	38%
Don’t Know/Refused	7%

(Of the "no, I did not file electronically" responders) Why didn’t you file electronically? Was it.?		(Of the "no, I did not file electronically" responders) What would make you more likely to file electronically?
Distrust of computer security	12%	Free or lower filing cost	11%
Desire to postpone paying taxes owed	2%	More confidence in computer security	22%
Discomfort with computers	10%	Better access to a computer	7%
Habit - I’ve always filed by mail	37%	Better personal computer skills	10%
I leave it to my CPA or tax preparer (volunteered response)	39%	Nothing would make me more likely (volunteered response)	18%
		I leave it to my CPA or tax preparer (volunteered response)	32%

Were you due a tax refund last year?
Yes, both federal and state	49%
Yes, federal only	10%
Yes, state only	3%
No	34%
Don’t Recall/Refused	3%

 

Between October 5th and October 13th, the Survey Research Center at the University of Arkansas dialed 6,696 randomly selected Arkansas telephone numbers. These attempts yielded 762 completed surveys. The remainder of the surveys were not completed for a variety of reasons, including the resident’s absence, a refusal to participate, a busy or disconnected line, or the resident’s ineligibility. Employing guidelines established by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the poll’s cooperation rate was 33%. This figure reflects completed surveys as a percentage of all eligible individuals contacted. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team opts to publish what many polling organizations do not: a comparison of survey respondents’ key demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is reported in the table below.

	2003 Arkansas Poll Sample	State of Arkansas
Median Age Category (for 18+ pop.)	45-54 years of age	35-44 years of age
Average # persons per household	2.5	2.5
Marital Status	61% married	58% married
Gender	40% male	49% male
Educational Attainment
high school graduates	89%	76%
college graduates	30%	17%
Median household income	$25,001-$35,000	$32,182
Race/Ethnicity
White	82.4%	80.0%
Black or African American	9.4%	15.7%
Multi-Ethnic	2.6%	1.3%
Hispanic	2.0%	3.2%
Native American	0.9%	0.7%
Asian	0.4%	0.8%

Source: All data from the Arkansas Poll or the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000.

Additional contacts for commentary on education reform:

Gary Ritter, assistant director of the public policy Ph.D. program, (479)575-4971, garyr@uark.edu

Mary Hughes, associate professor of educational leadership, counseling, and foundations, (479)575-7019, mhughe@uark.edu

Sean Mulvenon, associate professor of educational leadership, counseling and foundations, (479)575-5593, seanm@uark.edu