University Of Arkansas Psychologist Says Don't Look Back

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Lot’s wife turned to salt. Orpheus consigned Eurydice to the underworld. Ichabod Crane lost his head. Legend tells us that looking back leads only to sorrow and suffering.

This week, University of Arkansas researcher Denise Beike will contradict popular psychological theory to contend that looking back really can cost people their most precious possessions - self-confidence and peace of mind.

With the help of graduate student Deirdre Slavik, Beike recently completed a first-of-its-kind study on the natural occurrence of counterfactual thinking, a phenomenon that most people call hindsight.

"There have been many experiments conducted in the lab and many studies in which people were interviewed after a traumatic event, but ours is the first study to look at counterfactual thoughts as they occur in people’s day-to-day lives," Beike said.

The results of her research will be presented this Friday, Feb. 4, at the Society for Personality and Social Psychology meeting in Nashville, Tenn.

Counterfactual thinking is often triggered by a negative event, after which people imagine that if they had acted differently, they could have prevented the undesirable outcome. The currently dominant theory on counterfactual thinking claims this is a healthy response to disappointment and that it motivates people to change their behavior.

However, Beike believes that the detrimental effects of counterfactual thinking outweigh its benefits. To prove her point, Beike asked 17 students to keep diaries in which they recorded at least two counterfactual thoughts each day for a period of three weeks. Their entries included what triggered the thoughts, how the thoughts made them feel and whether the thoughts motivated them to change their actions.

A month later, Beike interviewed the students and found that, although the counterfactual thoughts made subjects feel bad at the time, they affected no long-term change of behavior.

"I think that’s typical of counterfactual thinking," said Beike. "If just thinking that you should act differently made you act differently, then everyone would lose weight, quit smoking and spend more time with their kids. It’s not that easy."

The results of the study confirmed Beike’s belief that counterfactual thinking inspires negative emotions such as remorse and lowered self-confidence while providing few benefits. This holds true even when the thoughts pertain to trivial issues like losing a parking space or arriving late for class.

Negative effects escalate in proportion to the magnitude of the event, said Beike. Previous studies that focused on survivors of traumatic experiences showed that those who indulged in counterfactual thinking tended to blame themselves more and to dwell on the event longer. These factors significantly slowed the healing process.

Though counterfactual thinking can be detrimental under these circumstances, it does serve a purpose, Beike said. In fact, it plays an important role in learning new tasks. As people acquire a new skill, they must be able to assess and alter their actions according to the results they wish to achieve.

Beike suggests that the dominant theory on counterfactual thought evolved out of laboratory experiments in which subjects were asked to perform unfamiliar tasks. In that environment, counterfactual thinking provided a helpful tool in the formation of new habits.

However, trying to reshape habits on a daily basis can result in worse consequences than if people simply accepted their occasional mistakes.

"Once you reach a certain point in life, you’ve already developed effective strategies. Tampering with those could lead to changes that are ultimately more detrimental than your current habits," Beike explained. "Often, the best solution is to acknowledge your mistake and move on."

Having argued the case against the dominant view of counterfactual thinking, Beike then argues that one type of hindsight may actually be beneficial. She calls them credit-taking thoughts - moments when people look back and congratulate themselves on taking the right course of action or making the right choice.

By focusing on how their own actions and choices lead to positive outcomes, people reinforce appropriate behaviors and prepare themselves for future success. In addition, taking credit for their good actions helps people feel more in control of themselves and their circumstances - an important factor for psychological health.

"Mistakes and disappointments catch our attention, but I don’t think it’s healthy to dwell on them," said Beike. "Instead, try to recognize your own self worth and allow yourself a couple moments of joy each day."