FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Math preparation is becoming the most prominent indicator of completing a college degree, but even those who struggle can graduate by being strategic about course selection, according to a team of University of Arkansas researchers.

Professors Sean Mulvenon, George Denny and Charles Stegman found the continual development of math skills, as well as the types of courses selected in college, to be key factors in determining which students will be successful in college. The researchers presented their paper, “Improving College Success: A Comprehensive Examination of Student Preparation,” at the American Education Research Association annual meeting in April.

The goal of their research was to identify pathways of success in hopes of improving graduation rates - an issue of importance to universities nationwide.

“Various patterns are emerging, with more research warranted on what the mechanisms are that are helping some students to succeed where others are having difficulties,” said Mulvenon, who holds the George M. and Boyce W. Billingsley Endowed Chair in Educational Research and Policy Studies.

For this study, the researchers investigated pathways to college success using a statewide database that links kindergarten through 12th-grade achievement records with their university records of academic progress. The data set included the individual test scores and transcripts beginning at the middle level, through high school and to the third year of university study. The postsecondary academic records of 1,780 students enrolled at the University of Arkansas were merged with their K-12 achievement data.

Through sixth grade, all students receive basically the same curricular content. After seventh grade and through high school, however, students can make their own choices about which courses to take, which in turn influence the skills they acquire, according to the study. Past studies have shown that high school transcripts are often a better indicator of college success than SAT or ACT scores, and one study indicated the most advanced mathematics course taken in high school was the strongest predictor of college completion.

The new research found that one indicator of success, standardized test scores from the ACT and SAT-9 exams, appears to gain in relevance as the student progresses through college. In predicting freshman grade-point averages, the ACT and SAT-9 exams accounted for only about 32 percent of variance in grades. However, by the fifth semester, the scores explained approximately half of the variance in student scores.

This is a significant result because it indicates that the performance of students who are staying in school and moving toward completing their college degree can be predicted using these exams. Further, because the SAT-9 was administered in the sophomore year, high school teachers have about two years during which they can prepare students who are identified as at-risk for not completing college.

 While high school grade-point average and ACT English scores were strong indicators in predicting college grade-point average, mathematical indicators seemed to gain in relevance during the first five semesters of college. This may indicate a process contributing to student retention, in which students weak in math or science postpone these courses until the junior or senior year, in effect creating a cushion in their grade-point average.

Once such a student begins university classes, the right “track” or path of courses can help make them more likely to succeed, the researchers point out. The student can benefit from a track of taking more social science courses as a freshman and sophomore. This way, as the student “stockpiles” credits, he or she can begin completing math and science requirements.

“If they make a few low grades in these math and science courses, it is OK, because they are offset by the higher grades in the other courses,” Mulvenon said. “Thus, an average student doesn’t 'fail’ to succeed simply because they took more advanced and difficult courses in the first few semesters.”

He used the analogy of a student who is in poor shape beginning an exercise program.

“We don’t challenge that student immediately, but we phase in a more rigorous workout schedule,” he said. “Students with less established academic preparation may need to have a less rigorous academic schedule to help them acclimate to the college environment.”

More research is needed to determine why some students who appear academically qualified on paper do not succeed at the college level. Also, about 60 percent of students identified as remedial students are succeeding in college, which brings up the question of what structural support mechanisms have assisted their efforts.