Forget The Primaries: Researchers Find Money, Opinions Predict Democratic Pick

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - Ignore Iowa. Never mind New Hampshire. A researcher at the University of Arkansas and his colleague have built a mathematical model based on previous presidential primary races that they hope will predict the democratic winner at the polls. And based on its calculations, Dean will win the nomination, with Clark a close second and Kerry following in third place.

Andrew Dowdle, assistant professor of political science, and Randall Adkins of the University of Nebraska at Omaha have examined information from the Federal Election Commission leading up to primary elections from 1979 to the present. They looked at placement in the primaries, Gallup Poll results, money spent and the cash on hand during the fourth quarter of the year leading up to the primary races. In each case, they used statistical methods to calculate whether a particular piece of information showed any correlation to the outcome of a race.

They found that a candidate’s position in the Gallup Poll and the amount of cash reserves a candidate had at the end of the fourth quarter showed a correlation with the outcome of the primaries in previous Democratic and Republican races. In the case of this year’s race, Dean has the highest standing in the Gallup Poll and had the highest cash reserves at the end of 2003.

"People are taking notice of the idea that pre-primary season is the important time, right now," Dowdle said

The current democratic primary race has proved among the most challenging to predict. In this race, a different candidate has emerged in first place each quarter, the first time this has happened in the past 25 years. According to Dowdle’s model, the first quarter showed Richard Gephardt in the lead, the second quarter singled out Joseph Lieberman and the third quarter placed Wesley Clark as the front-runner.

"It’s the most evenly matched, closest race I can imagine," Dowdle said.

The primaries rose to prominence after 1972, when laws were changed to give voters in primaries - rather than party elite - the power to select the presidential nominee. Then, in 1974, laws were passed requiring candidates to disclose the money they raised and how it was spent, paving the way for the Dowdle/Adkins model.

Dowdle and Adkins created the model in 1998 and tested it in 2000. They found that it accurately reflected both the Democratic and Republican primary races that year. This year marks the first time that Dowdle and Adkins have used the model to predict the outcome of the primary race. Nothing else—not commercials or endorsements or speeches—seems to be related to the outcome of the primaries in the same way as public opinion and fourth quarter cash reserves, Dowdle said.

He points out that former president Bill Clinton lost both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries but came back to win the presidency. He also cites John McCain as the opposite example: McCain raised $1 million within 24 hours of the New Hampshire primary but still ran out of money for his campaign.

"We want to help academic researchers better understand how the process works," Dowdle said. "We also want to have an impact on the audience outside of academia."

The criteria highlighted by Dowdle and Adkins show that it’s more difficult than ever before for a less well-known candidate with limited cash reserves to win a nomination. This finding raises questions about the political process, the researchers believe.

"If those people don’t have a chance any more, what effect does that have on the political system?" Dowdle said.