Bush Administration Taking Pre-Emptive Strike on Second Term

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - The second presidential term tends to be more difficult, but the Bush administration appears to be attempting to head off the problems, according to a University of Arkansas political scientist.

Andrew Dowdle, assistant professor of political science, said aside from some isolated successes, such as former President Bill Clinton's decision to send peacemaking troops into Kosovo, or Ronald Reagan's tax code reform, most presidents see more failures during their second term.

"One historian said there were no non-disastrous second terms in the 20^th century," Dowdle said. "That might be a little strong, but I can't think of one that really hasn't been problematic since the 19^th century."

Dowdle's specialty is presidential studies. His work has been published in journals such as Presidential Studies Quarterly and White House Studies. He pointed out that during the second term, the president is seen as being more of a lame duck, with the clock ticking toward the next election almost as soon as the inauguration speech is over.

One reason for a bumpy second term is the difficult task of coming up with new ideas and mobilizing people to help carry them out. Second terms often start with White House staffers and press secretaries leaving to go to the private sector.

Presidents also tend to throw caution to the wind to some extent, or make less-than-wise decisions, without the restraint of the threat of being defeated in the next election.

"Overstepping and ambition are traits that are seen in almost every president's second term," Dowdle said. As examples he named Nixon's interference with the Watergate investigations and Roosevelt's decision to try to pack the Supreme Court.

"You see a lack of basic common political sense by people who had demonstrated it through most of their political careers," he said.

Bush appears to recognize these obstacles, but seems to feel mitigating factors and a little strategy can help him overcome them. He has the majority in Congress on his side and has taken preemptive steps, such as replacing nearly all of the Cabinet members, a move that eases the introduction of new policies for the second term.

Bush has also made announcements of proposals, such as Social Security reform, that will be watched closely by voters.

"Obviously the war in Iraq will be a huge potential problem," Dowdle said. "Social Security reform is another very volatile issue."

While Social Security reform may no longer be the "third rail" of politics, it elicits strongly divided opinions from different groups of voters. The issue can have an effect on the Republican control of Congress in the mid-term polls of 2006, Dowdle explained.

People also will be watching to see if the budget deficit increases even more. While it may matter less to people than the war in Iraq or Social Security reform, it could contribute either directly or indirectly to second term political problems.

"People may view the Bush administration as not managing the economy," Dowdle said. "A higher deficit would make a future recession a little bit worse."