FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – A University of Arkansas study on terrorism and water supplies demonstrates that less-educated people – those with a high school diploma or less – are significantly more concerned about terrorist attacks against municipal water supplies than individuals with at least some college credits. The study also revealed that older people are more concerned than young people, women more than men and religious people more than those who consider religion as only “fairly” or “not very” important.

David Gay, University of Arkansas

“That last relationship – the importance of religion – produced the most discussion when we sat down and developed hypotheses on how people feel about a possible terrorist attack against a reservoir or river,” said David Gay, economics professor in the Sam M. Walton College of Business. “On one hand, there was some support for the belief that more religious people have faith that a higher being will protect them from terrorist evil. The converse belief was that terrorists represent different religions and are therefore more prone to attack nations that they at least perceive to have high levels of Christian beliefs.”

Gay and colleagues Charles Britton, also a professor of economics in the Walton College, and Richard Ford, a professor of economics at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, used the Arkansas Poll, an annual survey of Arkansas residents, to gauge Americans’ concerns about possible terrorist attacks against drinking-water supplies. The researchers, who have collaborated on many projects related to water poverty, water resources and the environment and the economies of arid lands, were motivated by comments made by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who, in a public hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee a week after the Sept. 11 attacks, stated that he expected more attacks and “contemplated the contamination of our reservoirs.”

Following Sept. 11, Congress, recognizing the importance of water supplies and their susceptibility to attack, quickly passed several important laws protecting sources of drinking water. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is the primary federal agency charged with ensuring water security. Still, Americans harbor fears about terrorist threats to municipal water supplies.

With the caveat that they were not suggesting that attacks were a likely or possible event, the researchers asked this question: “Many municipal water supplies consist of surface water reservoirs and streams. How concerned are you that these water supplies could become targets for terrorist attacks, such as poisoning?” Overall, 30 percent of the respondents said they were “very concerned,” 47 percent were “moderately concerned,” 22 percent were “unconcerned” and 1 percent did not know if they were concerned or not.

The researchers sought to determine whether different demographic groups viewed concern over terrorist attacks in significantly different ways. To obtain this information, they selected demographic variables related to age, education, income, religion and gender.

“We thought both education and income levels would be negatively related to concern over terrorism,” Gay said. “In other words, the higher the education and income level, the less concern there would be about terrorist attacks.”

Charles Britton, University of Arkansas

The data supported this hypothesis. For those respondents with a high school education or less, almost 86 percent were very concerned or moderately concerned about a terrorist attack against water supplies. Only 14 percent were unconcerned. Almost 29 percent of respondents with some college said they were very concerned, 51 percent were moderately concerned and 19 percent were unconcerned. Of those respondents with a college degree or more, only 21 percent were very concerned. Forty-five percent were moderately concerned and 33 percent were unconcerned. The researchers did not report results for income level as those findings were virtually the same as the findings for education.

As the researchers expected, age had much to do with concern over terrorist attacks against municipal water supplies. Age was broken down into three categories – people younger than 44, those 44 to 58 and people 59 and older. In all three age groups, most people were moderately concerned. However, only 27 percent of young and middle-aged people were very concerned, while 36 percent of those aged 59 and older felt the same. And while almost 32 percent of young people were unconcerned, only 14 percent of those in the oldest category felt the same.

Women were more concerned than men about possible terrorist attacks against water supplies. Thirty-three percent of women were very concerned; 48 percent were moderately concerned; and only 18 percent were unconcerned. Most male respondents – 45 percent – said they were moderately concerned. Twenty-six percent were very concerned, and 28 percent were unconcerned.

“Interestingly, marital status and the existence of children in the household did not produce statistically significant results,” Gay said. “We were somewhat surprised by this.”

Finally, as mentioned above, those who said religion was extremely important to them were more concerned about the threat of terrorist attacks against water supplies. Again, most people, regardless of the different importance levels of religion, were moderately concerned. Almost 35 percent of those who regard religion as extremely important said they were very concerned about a terrorist attack on municipal water supplies. Twenty-four percent of those who viewed religion as only “fairly” or “not very” important were very concerned. Thirty-three percent of this population were unconcerned, while only 18 percent of the most religious people felt the same.

“We think the concerns Arkansans have about the potential for terrorist attacks against water supplies represent the concerns of Americans as a whole,” Gay said. “We hope these findings will help the EPA allay these concerns.”

The Arkansas Poll is sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences. The poll was designed and analyzed by political scientists Janine Parry and Bill Schreckhise, in collaboration with researchers in psychology, information systems and economics. The University of Arkansas Survey Research Center conducted the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The study was published in Forum of the Association for Arid Lands Studies. Copies are available upon request.