FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - Hispanic immigrants are arriving in Arkansas in record-setting numbers, but they aren’t coming from Mexico. In fact, University of Arkansas researchers Gazi Shbikat and Steve Striffler have found that the vast majority of Hispanics don’t come to Arkansas from outside of the United States.

They report their findings in the current issue of Arkansas Business and Economic Review.

"The growth rate of the Hispanic population in Arkansas is a real phenomenon," said Shbikat, a research associate in the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) of the Walton College of Business. "Arkansas has the number one growth rate in the nation for Hispanics."

Shbikat and Striffler, assistant professor of anthropology, examined U.S. census data from 1990 and 2000. During this period, the population of Arkansas increased by 13.7 percent, with the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in Washington and Benton counties accounting for nearly one-third of that total.

Annual population growth in Northwest Arkansas was four percent, more than triple the national average, according to Striffler and Shbikat. In Benton and Washington counties, the Hispanic population grew nearly 25 percent. While the white population in these counties showed the largest numerical increase, the growth rate was only 3 percent.

"Very soon, Hispanics will be the dominant minority in many areas, if they aren’t already," said Shbikat.

The growth in Hispanic population occurred throughout the state. Although 20 counties actually lost population, even the six delta counties that accounted for 65 percent of population loss showed an increase in Hispanic population.

Many people assume that Hispanics are immigrating to Arkansas from Mexico, or at least from South America. The researchers have determined that this is not the case.

"At the state level, we know that international migration accounted for a relatively small percentage of total Hispanic migration into Arkansas," Shbikat explained. "In other words, most new arrivals came here from other states, not other countries."

Striffler and Shbikat found that the vast majority of Hispanics come to Arkansas after spending considerable time in other states, especially California. Their preliminary research indicates that Hispanic migrants come as families and intend to raise children and settle permanently in Arkansas. They speculate that economic factors are the driving force in Hispanic migration to Arkansas.

"The Northwest Arkansas area, in particular, is growing rapidly, and Hispanics come looking for jobs," said Shbikat. "But Hispanic migration is also feeding the growth. Northwest Arkansas has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation and Hispanic migration provides more bodies to do the jobs."

While these data provide useful insights, the researchers point out that they pose more questions than answers. Although the relationship between migration an economic growth is clear, the direction of that effect is not. Is migration driving the economic growth of Northwest Arkansas, for example, or are migrants coming to an area with an economic boom driven by something else?

To answer these and any other basic economic questions in Arkansas, Shbikat and Jeff Collins, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research of the Walton College of Business, have developed the Arkansas Indexes of Economic Indicators.

"Most states, and even some regions, have this type of economic indicator system," explained Collins. "But it has never existed in Arkansas until now."

Each month the CBER collects data from dozens of different sources, compiles them and publishes them on the CBER website at: http://www.uark.edu/depts/cberinfo/arindic/index.html.

"One of the great values of these data are that they are current," said Shbikat. "In the past, the available data might be six months to a year old, or even older. Current data are essential for forecasting and making sound business decisions."

The Arkansas Indexes of Economic Indicators draw on a variety of non-published data from sources in state and national government and local industries. Collins and Shbikat want to expand the data to include an Arkansas consumer confidence index and a help-wanted index, which will track job availability, hiring, benefits and other employment issues.